Novosti
Khirurgii

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Year 2018 Vol. 26 No 6

ONCOLOGY

F.SH. AKHMETZYANOV 1, 2, V.I. EGOROV 1, 2, A.I. FOMIN 3, A.V. KOKSHIN 1

PROGNOSTIC MODEL OF COLORECTAL ANASTOMOSIS SUTURES FAILURE

Kazan State Medical University 1,
Tatarstan Regional Clinical Cancer Center2, Kazan
I. N. Ulianov Chuvash State University3, Cheboksary,
The Russian Federation

Objective. To work out a multifactorial prognostic model for the development of inconsistency of colorectal anastomosis sutures after sphincter-saving operations on the rectum for cancer.
Methods. The work is based on the study of 145 patients who were subject to low and ultra-low intra-abdominal resections of the rectum for cancer; there were 65 males, 80 females. The average age of patients was 66.1±10.81 years, there were 95 patients (76.6%) over the age of 60 and 54 (37.3%) over 70. The following parameters were analyzed: gender, age, body mass index, anesthesia assessment according to ASA, concomitant diseases, tumor stage, tumor level from the anus, volume of operation, anastomosis level from the anus, postoperative complications. The multifactorial prognostic model of the development of the anastomosis sutures failure is based on the binary logistic regression method.
Results. The colorectal anastomoses sutures failure has developed in 23 patients (15.9%). No patient was reoperated because of the formation of an intestinal stoma. The following statistically significant factors of the inconsistency of the colorectal anastomosis sutures were obtained: the anastomosis level from the anus, the level of the tumor to the anus, the body mass index, the presence of coronary heart disease, the status of anesthesia in ASA (p <0.001, p=0.002, p=0.035, p<0.001, p=0.037, respectively). Based on the information about the influence of various factors on the incidence of the sutures failure of colorectal cancer, a prognostic model was designed that was transformed into a computer program to simplify the use in the practice of a doctor.
Conclusions. The developed multifactorial prognostic model and its implementation in the form of a simple computer program enables physicians to assess the risk of development of the colorectal sutures failure on the basis of several statistically significant factors and apply appropriate measures to prevent postoperative complications after low and ultra-low rectal resections for cancer.

Keywords: colorectal cancer, colorectal anastomosis, anastomosis leakage, prognosis, software
p. 707-714 of the original issue
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Address for correspondence:
420012, The Russian Federation,
Kazan, Baturin Str., 49,
Kazan State Medical University,
Department of Oncology,
X-ray Diagnostics and Radiotherapy,
Tel. office: +7 927 429 96 71,
e-mail: drvasiliy21@gmail.com,
Vasiliy I. Egorov
Information about the authors:
Akhmetzyanov Foat Sh., MD, Professor, Head of the Department of Oncology, X-ray Diagnostics and Radiotherapy, Kazan State Medical University, Head of the Tatarstan Regional Clinical Cancer Center, Kazan, Russian Federation.
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4516-1997
Egorov Vasiliy I., PhD, Assistant of the Department of Oncology, X-ray Diagnostics and Radiotherapy, Kazan State Medical University, Oncologist of the General Oncology Unit of Tatarstan Regional Clinical Cancer Center, Kazan, Russian Federation.
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6603-1390
Fomin Aleksey I., Applicant for Master’s Degree of the Faculty of Informatics and Computer Science, I. N. Ulianov Chuvash State University, Cheboksary, Russian Federation.
http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0771-5044
Kokshin Alexander V., Post-Graduate Student of the Department of Neurosurgery, Kazan State Medical University, Kazan, Russian Federation.
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4985-2960
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